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But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”

For now, the growth provides room for multiple market makers. Marantelli expects margins to “stay good during the growth period” before contracting as competition intensifies. The more complex RFQ and parlay markets may offer the best protection against that compression.

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“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”

Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.

Some legal experts and members of the investment community believe it’s possible the Supreme Court could hear a prediction market case at some point over the next six or seven months.

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Within the report, Spectrum alleges “concerns around the availability of Evolution’s games in certain prohibited markets, the regulatory implications of its practices, and the lack of proactive monitoring of its customers”, Playtech has reported.

The report was commissioned by Evolution and was recently unsealed in the ongoing case. Evolution had tried to delay the report’s release, citing confidential and commercial sensitivity.

The case, which dates back to November 2021, was filed by Evolution against Black Cube, after the intelligence firm was found to have been secretly investigating Evolution’s activities from December 2020.