Ratinho Sortudo

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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

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The Gambling Commission’s industry activity report for the financial year April 2025 to March 2026, has reported an increase of 4.4% in GGY across all channels, to £17.5 billion.

The growth, driven predominantly by remote (online) gambling activities, contrasts with a decline in physical gambling premises, highlighting shifting consumer preferences and market dynamics.

When excluding all reported lottery activity, GGY increased to £13.2 billion, up 4.7% year-on-year.

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All nine of Atlantic City’s casinos agreed to new labour deals this summer without a strike, although its union opted for just one-year deals instead of the typical length of three or more years. This was in response to increased uncertainty related to looming competition from both New York City casinos and New Jersey’s own online gaming industry.

In Las Vegas, the Culinary Union has unionised the entire Las Vegas Strip and secured historic wage increases during the last round of negotiations. Those deals are about halfway done now, and Culinary is no stranger to strikes, having used them as leverage to secure new deals in the run-up to the inaugural Formula One Las Vegas Grand Prix in 2023 and and Super Bowl the following February.

Jess has covered the global gaming industry since 2022. A native of Reno, Nevada, he’d like to note that it’s Ne-va-da, not Ne-VAH-da.