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But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”

For now, the growth provides room for multiple market makers. Marantelli expects margins to “stay good during the growth period” before contracting as competition intensifies. The more complex RFQ and parlay markets may offer the best protection against that compression.

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Fullstory points out that while 62% of consumers have dabbled in sports event contracts, 42% traded economic or financial derivatives on a prediction market while a comparable percentage transacted in an election or political event contract. More than a quarter traded at least one entertainment or pop culture derivative.

That widening breadth is vital for the industry at a time when some analysts estimate volume could jump to $10 trillion by 2035 – a projection that is largely rooted in other categories surpassing sports for the top spot.  

Nearly a third of respondents told Fullstory that increased event contract breadth could compel them to consistently choose a prediction market over a sportsbook.

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But he said he was not concerned. “On the Italian antitrust, we don’t think we are in a risky situation because Italy is not the core of this deal and this doesn’t change the level of concentration in the country and will still be below 40% in each relevant market. So we don’t see that.

“We do not expect revenue attrition. These are complementary brands and complementary models, and we have a history of managing a multi-brand business in Italy, and we already have several brands that run in our business and that are complementary.”

Kyle has been with Clarion since December 2023, joining from the world of sports journalism, subsequently becoming a LatAm-facing senior reporter with iGB.