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The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.

“When it comes to prediction markets, none of that exists,” he said. “Everyone that’s building in the prediction market space mostly starts from ground zero.”

Platforms were generally constructed for one person operating one account, rather than trading organisations requiring separate permissions and controls. According to Gonzalez, some teams still share a single login.

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“With the combination of Lottomatica and Cirsa, two extremely successful companies, we create the undisputed leader in Italy and Spain, among the best gaming markets globally, complemented by leadership positions in other very high growth geographies,” he said.

Cirsa CEO Antonio Hostench added: “I am delighted to embark on this exciting journey together. The combination of Cirsa and Lottomatica creates a world-class diversified gaming leader with leading positions across its core markets and significant opportunities to accelerate profitable growth.”

Lottomatica will absorb Cirsa though an EU cross-border statutory merger, with Lottomatica continuing as the surviving entity.

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However, the latest filing does not create such a system right away. Its OIRA entry describes the action as a preliminary measure and says it is not economically significant under the relevant review criteria. No legal deadline has been listed for review either. 

It could, therefore, take quite a bit longer than the timing of the initial filing indicates. The CFTC would have to publish its action and solicit public comment after White House review before writing a formal proposed rule. Any final rule would have to undergo another review and comment period before it could take effect. 

The distinction matters for crypto businesses. The filing shows regulatory work is moving forward, but exchanges and other market participants cannot yet consider it a set of rules they must adhere to.