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Now, with Japan promising to open two more IR licences in 2027, ambitious bidders are craning their necks for a leg up over the competition. But Japan has telegraphed mixed messaging on the casino industry.

Depsite it having liberalised gambling in pursuit of the economic benefits that casinos can bring, its regulatory architecture and deeply ingrained social attitudes are not particuarly pro gambling.

The regulatory framework strictly keeps the casino component in check. Casino floor space is capped at 3% of the total floor area of the IR, while Japanese residents are restricted to three visits per week and 10 visits within any 28-day period. Each visit also carries a mandatory ¥6,000 entry fee, reinforcing the government’s intent to curb excessive gambling even as it opens the door to casinos.

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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

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A point the industry largely agrees on is that DEI must start at the top.

“Leadership is the single biggest determinant of an inclusive culture,” Skinner comments. “Policies matter, but individuals experience inclusion primarily through their managers. Leaders set the tone through the decisions they make, the behaviours they reward and the conversations they encourage.”

Some companies, such as Evoke, actively monitor DEI at a leadership level to track whether initiatives are making an impact.